News
In this week’s summary:
- The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have launched an offensive south of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Region, advancing up to 5 kilometers deep over a 15-square-kilometer area.
- In the Pokrovsk sector, Russian advances have slowed to a minimum, with Ukrainian forces launching counterattacks on the western flank.
- The Russian military is making significant efforts to completely eliminate Ukrainian resistance in the so-called “Kurakhove pocket.”
- Prominent Russian pro-war commentators are criticizing the use of the “Navalny Rule” in the Siversk sector and denouncing “madness” near the village of Novoiehorivka.
- Russian forces are consolidating and expanding their bridgeheads on the Zherebets and Oskil rivers in Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv Region.
- A school sheltering civilians in Sudzha — a town in Russia’s Kursk Region currently occupied by Ukrainian troops — was struck, with both sides accusing the other of the attack.
- The independent open source intelligence (OSINT) project Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) reports that at least 2,600 civilians have been killed in Russia and Ukraine due to strikes in 2024.
- Ukraine has received its first batch of Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets from France, along with another delivery of F-16s from the Netherlands.
Situation at the front
For most of the week, the front in the Kursk Region remained relatively stable, with only minor Russian assaults repelled near Makhnovka, south of Sudzha. However, on Feb. 6, Ukrainian forces — estimated at up to two battalions — launched a new offensive from Makhnovka, likely aiming to push Russian troops further from Sudzha. In some areas, Russian positions were as close as 3 km to the district center. Ukrainian forces advanced up to 5 km, operating within a 15-square-kilometer zone where their equipment has been spotted. Reports indicate that the AFU suffered significant equipment losses due to strikes from Russian FPV drones using fiber-optic guidance, though estimates vary, with claims ranging from “all combat vehicles destroyed” to “around five losses.”
Russian pro-war blogger Roman Alekhin described the situation near Sudzha as an “operational defeat,” blaming General Sukhrab Akhmedov, formerly the commander of Russia’s 20th Army and now reportedly leading the “Kursk” military grouping. Self-styled “war correspondent” Roman Saponkov argued that the Ukrainian breakthrough was made possible because parts of the territory near Sudzha were captured “on credit” — meaning they were not actually controlled by Russian forces, allowing AFU units to pass through unnoticed.
At the start of the week, Russian forces advanced (1, 2) west and east of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, forming a semi-encirclement south of these settlements. However, according to Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets, Russian advances have “slowed to a minimum” since then, and Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks on the western flank using armored vehicles, drones, and artillery. Russian self-styled “war correspondent” Yuri Kotenok attributed these counterattacks to the appointment of Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Mykhailo Drapatyi as head of the “Khortytsia” operational-strategic grouping, responsible for the Donetsk Region.
In the Kurakhove operational area, Russian forces have managed to secure positions in Andriivka, strengthening their hold on the northern flank of the so-called “Kurakhove pocket.” Additionally, Russian troops advanced into Dachne, located west of occupied Kurakhove, where they reportedly planted a flag.
Military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets believes (1, 2) that Russia is being forced to make considerable efforts to eliminate the “Kurakhove pocket,” while Ukrainian troops maintain organized rearguard resistance due to their continued control over the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk highway.
In the Bakhmut sector, Russian sources reported the capture of the “Pivnichnyi” (lit. “Northern”) district in Chasiv Yar. Meanwhile, in the neighboring Toretsk sector, Russia’s Ministry of Defense (1, 2) claimed control over Druzhba and Toretsk. However, these reports were met with skepticism. The Russian Telegram channel Rybar cast doubt on the claim regarding Druzhba, while Ukrainian military monitoring group DeepState disputed the claim about Toretsk. The Ukrainian analysts confirmed that fighting continues on the outskirts of the city, though Russian forces have established firm control over the city center.
Rybar also criticized the Russian practice of false reporting and also decried the so-called “Navalny Rule,” which has purportedly led to brigade commanders in this sector retaining their positions due to media scrutiny from so-called “foreign agent” publications — similar to the way Russian officials targeted in Alexei Navalny’s investigations often remained in their positions.
In the Lyman sector, Ukrainian analysts from the OSINT project DeepState reported that the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade and allied units repelled a major Russian attack near Vyshneve. Meanwhile, Russian pro-war blogger Yuri Podolyaka described operations in Novoiehorivka as “MADNESS,” accusing commanders of sending Russian assault troops on suicidal attacks despite claims that the settlement is already under Russian control.
At the same time, Russian forces have expanded their foothold (1, 2) on the right bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka. Further north, Russian troops have advanced across the Oskil River, securing the villages of Zapadne and Fyholivka (1, 2), Novomlynsk, and Kalynove, as well as crossing into the Topoli area.
DeepState’s analysts note a significant decrease in the overall pace of Russian offensives in January 2025 and a reduction in the number of Russian attacks in early February. Meanwhile, the AFU continues to transfer personnel from the Air Force into infantry roles. Ukraine has also announced that it will begin transitioning to a corps-based military structure.
Mutual strikes and sabotage
The Ukrainian Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) intercepting 365 Shahed-type and other unidentified drones out of 607 launched at the country over the past week. An additional 218 drones were classified as “radar-lost.” In the same period, 46 missiles of various types were launched, 42 of them during the night of Feb. 1. While the exact number of intercepted missiles that night was not specified, Ukrainian authorities claimed that most did not reach their intended targets.
On the night of Feb. 1, a strike hit a boarding school in the town of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk Region, killing six people and injuring dozens. Sudzha is currently controlled by Ukrainian forces, and both sides blamed the other (1, 2) for the attack, with Russian government-controlled media accusing Ukraine of “striking itself” — at the same time, Kremlin-controlled outlets were reporting on Russian airstrikes in the Kursk Region.
For its part, Russia's Ministry of Defense (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18) reported that 138 Ukrainian fixed-wing drones, two unmanned surface vessels, and a Neptune cruise missile had been destroyed over the past week across Russia, the occupied Crimean Peninsula, and the Black and Azov seas. Ukrainian forces carried out strikes on the following confirmed targets:
- The Volgograd oil refinery and the Astrakhan gas processing plant (night of Feb. 3): A previous strike on the Volgograd refinery occurred three days earlier. The Astrakhan plant sustained damage to its gas condensate processing unit, with repairs expected to take until at least July.
- The Albashneft “mini-refinery” in Krasnodar Krai (night of Feb. 5), which was reportedly targeted with a jet-powered drone.
- A military airfield in Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai (night of Feb. 6).
According to a count by volunteers at the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) OSINT project, at least 153 civilians were killed and over 1,034 injured in strikes on civilian infrastructure in January 2025. The totals include data from both sides of the front line.
CIT also released a report titled “Civilian Casualties from Strikes in 2024,” documenting at least 2,600 civilian deaths: 1,915 killed in Ukraine-controlled territory, 452 killed in Russian-occupied territories, and 233 killed inside Russia. At least 14,100 people were reported injured.
Losses
The BBC Russian Service, in collaboration with the independent exiled Russian media outlet Mediazona and a team of volunteer researchers, updated its count of confirmed Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine, placing the number at 91,059. Between Jan. 17 and Jan. 31, an additional 2,333 names were added to the list.
In an interview with British news anchor Piers Morgan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that 45,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and approximately 390,000 wounded during the war with Russia, with some being wounded more than once. He estimated Russian losses at 300,000–350,000 killed and 600,000–700,000 wounded.
The UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine reported a sharp rise in executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war, documenting 79 cases across 24 separate incidents since late August 2024. The mission verified these cases using video footage, photographs, and witness testimonies.
An analysis by the OSINT researcher Cloooud | 🇺🇦 identified 30 total documented cases of suicide among Russian troops in January 2025 — including 20 by firearms and 10 by grenade detonation.
OSINT researcher Cyrus, citing data from the Oryx project, noted a decline in Russian tank losses over recent months. This may reflect a broader trend of diminishing combat-ready armored vehicles in the Russian military — a development previously detailed in a recent report by The Insider.
Weapons and military vehicles
Reuters reported that U.S. military aid shipments to Ukraine have resumed after a short pause caused by internal disagreements within Donald Trump's administration. The aid packages in question were allocated under Joe Biden’s presidency, as the new administration has yet to announce any new aid under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), despite funds remaining unused from the previous administration. Reports also confirmed that the AFU has received 1,000-pound Mark 83 bombs equipped with the JDAM-ER guidance and extended-range module.
This week also saw the first delivery of French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, along with a new batch of F-16s from the Netherlands. Meanwhile, production of Patria 6x6 armored personnel carriers (APCs) in Latvia for the AFU has officially begun.
The most unusual development on the Russian side was the introduction of donkeys (1, 2) at the front, which are being used to transport ammunition to frontline positions. Aside from pack animals, Russian forces received a batch of North Korean “high-precision” ballistic missiles, reportedly with an accuracy deviation of 50 to 100 meters — a significant improvement over the previous deviation of 1 to 3 kilometers (0.6 to 1.8 miles). In addition, Rostec announced this year’s first delivery of BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles to the Russian military.