Muhammad in his own land: How Saudi Arabia’s crown prince turned his kingdom into a key player in global politics

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The real ruler of Saudi Arabia

Mohammed bin Salman’s meteoric rise to power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) began in January 2015, when King Abdullah, who had ruled for nearly a decade, passed away. Abdullah’s brother Salman ascended the throne and, within hours, appointed his 30-year-old son Mohammed as defense minister, setting “MBS” on a path to rapidly become the kingdom’s de facto ruler.

Two months later, King Salman reshuffled the line of succession. He removed 69-year-old Crown Prince Muqrin, the youngest son of Saudi Arabia’s founder Abdulaziz Al Saud, and replaced him with his nephew, 55-year-old Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef.

However, in June 2017, Salman staged another shake-up, naming Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince while allowing him to retain his roles as defense minister and first deputy prime minister. The ousted crown prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, was stripped of his ministerial position and placed under house arrest. From that moment, Mohammed bin Salman became the kingdom’s undisputed ruler, with his aging father remaining only a figurehead.

A defining moment came in late 2017. Riyadh hosted the Future Investment Initiative, known colloquially as “Davos in the Desert,” a global business summit that drew more than 3,500 executives and financiers. On Mohammed bin Salman’s orders, several dozen Saudi attendees — including Prince Muteb bin Abdullah, a potential rival for the throne — were detained in Riyadh’s luxurious Ritz-Carlton hotel. Officially, they were accused of corruption and money laundering, but in reality, the newly created “anti-corruption committee,” led by the crown prince, was simply extorting money and assets from its potential competitors for power.

According to numerous leaks, some detainees were tortured and barred from leaving the country. While most businessmen and former power players eventually secured their release by surrendering a portion of their wealth, this was only the beginning of the crackdown. In 2018, Saudi authorities launched a wave of arrests targeting activists who campaigned for women’s rights.

Repression behind the reformist faсade

These harsh measures were meant to showcase Mohammed bin Salman’s tightening grip on power. The current regime is built primarily on fear, ensuring that even the slightest hint of rebellion from other royal contenders is suppressed. Behind his back, the crown prince is often called Abu Rasasa — “father of the bullet.” According to reports, he once mailed a bullet to an official who had ruled against him in a land dispute. Another version claims that during an argument with his mother, MBS fired several shots into the ceiling.

Under Mohammed bin Salman, the number of executions in Saudi Arabia has surged dramatically. In 2024, the kingdom carried out 309 executions — the highest number in its history. Only Iran recorded more that year, with 800 documented executions.

Many Saudis not only fear criticizing the authorities in public, but also avoid such discussions in private, even within their own homes. Yet dissatisfaction exists at all levels of society. Wealthy princes and businessmen resent losing privileges such as free air travel, utilities, and medical care, while ordinary citizens grapple with persistent economic hardships, including an unemployment rate that remains between 8-9%.

In October 2018, Saudi opposition journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was brutally murdered inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Six weeks later, the CIA concluded that the order had come directly from the crown prince. A year after the killing, Mohammed bin Salman acknowledged responsibility for Khashoggi’s death but insisted he had no prior knowledge of what was planned for the journalist.

While Donald Trump’s administration rejected the CIA’s findings at the time asserting Mohammed bin Salman’s guilt, Joe Biden vowed to make the Saudi crown prince a “pariah.” However, for the international community, the repressive nature of the Saudi regime and the concentration of power in its de facto leader’s hands have largely gone unnoticed amid the country’s “progressive” reforms.

A progressive dictator

Since the kingdom’s founding in 1932, the ruling House of Saud has maintained a close alliance with Wahhabi clerics, proponents of a fundamentalist branch of Islam advocating a return to the religious practices of the Prophet Muhammad’s era in the 7th century.

Until recently, Wahhabis wielded immense influence in the kingdom, primarily through the Committee for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, which oversaw the religious police. Officers from this institution could administer corporal punishment to men for wearing shorts in public or to women whose hair was visible beneath their headscarves.

Mohammed bin Salman has systematically dismantled this system. He gradually curtailed the religious police’s authority, preventing them from forcibly shutting down shops and restaurants during calls to prayer, which occur five times every day. Authorities also turn a blind eye to the use of dating apps like Tinder. In 2018, the crown prince issued a decree allowing women to drive — a decree that, ironically, came just after the aforementioned mass arrests of women’s rights activists. Women can now also attend karaoke clubs, fitness centers, soccer matches, Formula 1 races, and concerts, including performances by international stars, who have been increasingly lured to Saudi Arabia under bin Salman’s rule.

Thanks to Mohammed bin Salman, sports such as boxing, wrestling, off-road racing, and even bull runs have made their way to the kingdom. Additionally, Saudis and foreigners alike now have access to rave parties. In December 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, a government-approved rave attracted over 700,000 young Saudis and lasted for four days. A visitor to one such event in 2022 recalled that locals and foreigners danced barefoot, women wore sleeveless outfits and revealing tops, and alcohol was even served at the gathering.

These previously unthinkable changes, introduced as part of the sweeping Vision 2030 program, have shaped the crown prince’s image as a modern reformer in the eyes of the global community. This carefully crafted image enables him to carry out harsh crackdowns on dissent, as the kingdom’s internal affairs are of little concern to Formula 1 spectators or fans of Portuguese football star Cristiano Ronaldo, who has now been playing for Riyadh-based club Al-Nassr for nearly two years.

Major foreign policy ambitions

Even as defense minister, Mohammed bin Salman actively pursued his ambitions on the international stage. In March 2015, at his initiative, Riyadh launched Operation Decisive Storm against the Yemen-based, Iran-aligned Ansar Allah movement (commonly known as the Houthis).

What Saudi generals had been assured would be a brief operation lasting only weeks instead dragged on for nearly a decade, yielding no significant results. The Houthis continue to control about a third of Yemen’s territory, including the capital, Sanaa, home to roughly 80% of the country's population.

The kingdom has spent billions of dollars in its efforts to suppress the rebels, who in recent years have only strengthened their ability to carry out precision strikes on Saudi territory. For example, in September 2019, Houthi drone attacks paralyzed Saudi Arabia’s oil industry for nearly a day. Riyadh ultimately agreed to a truce with them in April 2022, and although the ceasefire officially expired in October of that year, in practice it has remained in place.

By March 2023, the kingdom was losing ground on all fronts to its main geopolitical rival — Iran. In Iraq, the influence of the pro-Iranian Shiite militias Al-Hashd al-Shaabi had grown stronger. In Syria, Tehran’s ally Bashar al-Assad remained in power, while the Saudi-backed armed opposition was in retreat. Finally, in Yemen, the Houthis had not only survived, but further consolidated their position. Against this backdrop, Riyadh was forced to restore diplomatic relations with Tehran through Chinese mediation.

Another failed gamble by the Saudi kingdom under its increasingly influential crown prince was the blockade imposed on Qatar in June 2017. The Gulf Arab states and Egypt accused Doha of supporting terrorism and maintaining close ties with Iran. However, Qatar refused to comply with any of the demands set by its neighbors. Nevertheless, during a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in January 2021, Saudi Arabia and other member states reinstated diplomatic ties with Qatar.

The role of a global mediator

Despite foreign policy setbacks, Saudi Arabia’s influence in the Middle East has grown significantly in recent years — especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Iraq, Syria, and particularly Egypt were considered the key Arab powers in the late 20th and early 21st centuries — with seven out of eight secretaries-general of the Arab League, including current head Ahmed Aboul Gheit, having been Egyptian — Saudi Arabia is now vying for this role.

In November 2023, at the initiative of Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom hosted an emergency Arab League summit focused on the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In January 2025, Assad Hassan al-Shibani, who became the foreign minister of Syria’s transitional government following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad, made his first foreign visit — to Riyadh. On February 2, the new Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Julani) also traveled to Riyadh for his first international trip — contrary to media expectations that he would go to Turkey. Reports are also emerging about Riyadh’s potential role as a mediator in the resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran on Iran’s nuclear program.

Saudi Arabia plays a key role in the normalization of relations between Israel and the Arab world. Had it not been for the escalation of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, the kingdom would likely have become the seventh Arab country to establish diplomatic relations with Israel under U.S. mediation. In turn, Riyadh has set its own conditions for a deal with the Jewish state: security guarantees from the United States and assistance in developing a civilian nuclear program.

In 2020, during Donald Trump’s first stint in the White House, the normalization of relations between Israel and four Arab countries — the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan — was achieved via the Abraham Accords, and Israel appears set to pursue the resumption of this process. However, any discussion on the restoration of relations between Israel and the Arab world will now inevitably raise the issue of Israel's recognition of Palestinian statehood. Given Trump's stated plans to expel Palestinians from the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing regional conflict, further diplomatic breakthroughs appear increasingly distant.

A negotiations hub

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West's reliance on imports of hydrocarbons from the Gulf states only increased. Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest oil producer and sixth-largest natural gas producer, played a central role in this dynamic. The surge in oil prices during the first half of 2022, surpassing $100 per barrel, benefited all oil-producing nations, including Russia and Saudi Arabia. At that time, Riyadh and Moscow were already closely cooperating under the OPEC+ framework, coordinating oil production levels in their mutual interest.

The war in Ukraine did not disrupt Russian-Saudi relations. During his visit to the kingdom in July 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden sought to convince Mohammed bin Salman to boost oil production in order to lower prices and exert pressure on Russia. However, Biden’s efforts yielded no results. Even the decision by the Biden administration, which stated that the Saudi crown prince, as a head of state, “is not subject to liability” in the case of Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, did not change the course of events.

In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the crown prince has maintained a position of relative neutrality. In February 2023, Saudi Arabia announced a $410 million humanitarian aid package for Ukraine. Later that year, in August, at the initiative of President Volodymyr Zelensky and with the support of the Saudi crown prince, an international summit on Ukraine took place in Jeddah, attended by 42 countries, with Russia notably absent. However, by December, Mohammed bin Salman was personally hosting Vladimir Putin during the Russian president’s visit to Riyadh.

This approach has positioned the crown prince as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv. For instance, in September 2022, thanks to Saudi efforts, Ukraine secured an exchange of pro-Kremlin politician Viktor Medvedchuk and 55 Russian soldiers for 215 Ukrainian prisoners of war. Many subsequent exchanges have also been facilitated thanks to Saudi involvement.

Mohammed bin Salman can be likened to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, one of the few world leaders who maintains equally strong ties with both Putin and Zelensky. However, for Moscow, Saudi Arabia likely appears to be a more preferable mediator than Turkey, which remains a NATO member and a geopolitical rival to the Kremlin. It is therefore not surprising that Trump chose to plan his meeting with Putin in Saudi Arabia rather than Turkey or another neutral country.

This diplomatic strategy positions Saudi Arabia as a pivotal player not just in the Middle East, but also on the global stage. Western nations, dependent on affordable oil and in need of intermediaries for talks with pariahs like Russia or Hamas, are willing to overlook the kingdom’s human rights abuses. Mohammed bin Salman is effectively building a “Middle Eastern Switzerland” — not a democracy, but still a compelling and influential power.