Weekly Russia-Ukraine war summary: Fighting in “borrowed” Toretsk, the AFU seizes the initiative at Pokrovsk, scandal in Washington

In this week's summary:

• Russian forces appear to have crossed the border into Ukraine's Sumy Region at one location on the western flank of the AFU’s Kursk bridgehead.
• The AFU conducted several counterattacks from different directions deep into the residential area of “borrowed” Toretsk.
• The Russian Armed Forces' offensive southwest of Pokrovsk has halted, with Ukrainian troops seizing the initiative while conducting defensive operations.
• In the South Donetsk sector, fighting continues north of Velyka Novosilka and at the Kostyantynopil-Ulakly line.
• Trump and Zelensky's meeting in Washington on Friday ended in a public scandal.
• The accuracy of Russian glide bombs is decreasing due to the proliferation of electronic warfare devices.
• Mediazona and Meduza estimate Russia's war losses to be 165,000 killed.
• European allies discuss a €20 billion military aid package for Ukraine.

Situation at the front

By the end of the week, the Ukrainian side confirmed that Russian troops had crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border from the Kursk Region into the Sumy Region for the first time. On the map of Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, the village of Novenke in the Sumy Region appeared in the “gray zone.” Novenke is located south of the western flank of the bridgehead that Ukrainian forces established in Russia’s Kursk Region last August. Russian pro-war channels interpret this incursion as an attempt to disrupt Ukrainian logistics, while the AFU General Staff claims that the cross-border attack had taken place several days ago and had been successfully repulsed.

In the Toretsk sector, judging by video geolocation data (1, 2, 3), the Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted several counterattacks deep into the urban area of Toretsk from multiple directions. According to Russian pro-war blogger Anatoly Radov, the town was taken by Russian troops “on credit,” with the Russian Ministry of Defense prematurely reporting its capture as early as Feb. 7.

In the Pokrovsk sector, the Ukrainian Defense Forces conducted effective counterattacks in the villages of Uspenivka and Kotlyne on the left flank of the bulge formed during the Russian offensive on the agglomeration of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian troops, in turn, finally captured the village of Zaporizhzhia in the southwest part of the sector. Meanwhile, assaults toward Nadiivka and the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk Region were not particularly successful, despite the use of tanks, which have become a rare sight. Russian self-styled “war correspondent” Yuri Kotenok admits that Ukrainian counterattacks cannot be repelled due to the lack of personnel on Moscow’s side.

Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets believes (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) that the Russian Armed Forces have not abandoned their plans to envelop Pokrovsk from the west and cut logistical routes to Mezhova and Pavlohrad, since Russian attacks in this direction continue. However, AFU counterattacks have “significantly weakened” the enemy's offensive potential in the area. According to Mashovets, the Russian Armed Forces' offensive southwest of Pokrovsk has been halted, but Ukrainian troops are not yet capable of launching a large-scale counterattack here. Mashovets believes that in order to resume the advance, the Russian command will need to divert forces from other sectors, namely South Donetsk and Toretsk. DeepState, in turn, states that the initiative in the defense of the sector has shifted to the AFU, and attributes this to the appointment of Mykhailo Drapatyi as commander of the Operational and Strategic Group of Forces Khortytsia.

In the South Donetsk sector — the section of the front running from Andriivka south of the Pokrovsk sector to the administrative border of Zaporizhzhia Region — the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the capture of the village of Ulakly west of Kurakhove. The Ukrainian serviceman running the Telegram channel “Ofitser ✙” claims that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are holding individual positions in Ulakly and fully control neighboring Kostyantynopil, having knocked Russian stormtroopers out of the village. DeepState recognizes the capture of Novoocheretuvate by Russian forces and their advance in the vicinity of Burlatske and Pryvilne north of Velyka Novosilka. Russian self-styled “war correspondent” Kotenok claims Russia's full capture of the latter two settlements; however, on the line of contact map published by his colleague Vladimir Romanov, the settlements are marked as AFU-controlled. Overall, unlike in the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian forces have yet to stabilize the situation in this area, and the offensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces continue, albeit without operational success so far.

Donald Trump held talks in Washington this week with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. European leaders tried to convince Trump to pledge support for a future European peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine, but Macron’s efforts failed to produce such a result. In turn, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke out against the deployment of foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine and resisted calls to freeze the conflict along the current line of contact, reiterating Russia's previous claim to the entire territory of Ukraine's four partially occupied regions. The meeting between Trump and Zelensky ended in a verbal altercation that resulted in the Ukrainian president leaving the White House early, and the proposed U.S.-Ukrainian agreement on the development of natural resources remains unsigned.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

The AFU Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) downing 773 Shahed-type and other unidentified UAVs out of the 1,378 launched against Ukraine during the week. Another 579 UAVs were “radar lost” under the influence of electronic warfare. In addition, the Air Force reported intercepting six out of 10 Russian missiles of various types.

Russian pro-war channel Fighterbomber complains that FAB aerial bombs with UMPK kits are losing accuracy due to Ukraine’s widespread use of electronic assets, rendering FABs ineffective against small targets on the line of contact. The author believes it necessary to increase the number of bombs per target, but the command of the Russian Armed Forces does not intend to change anything. The author of the Telegram channel “Aviahub⚪️🟠,” associated with the Russian Armed Forces, writes that FAB bombs with UMPK kits remain effective despite local irregularities with electronic warfare, but the Ukrainian source Militarnyi confirms Fighterbomber's assessment. Russian serviceman Svyatoslav Golikov has also noted a decrease in the accuracy of Russian glide bombs.

The Russian MoD, for its part, reported the destruction of 304 fixed-wing drones over Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukrainian forces hit the following targets during the week:

• An oil depot in the village of Brusyansky, Tula Region, on the night of Feb. 23
• An oil refinery in Ryazan, where the AVT-3 primary oil refining unit and AT-6 atmospheric distillation unit caught fire on the night of Feb. 24, causing the enterprise to suspend operations
• An oil refinery and a seaport (where two vessels were damaged) in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, on the night of Feb. 26
• A radar station near Cape Tarkhankut in occupied Crimea
• An ammunition depot in Selydove, Donetsk Region

According to CIT volunteers' calculations (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), between 20:00 on Feb. 20 and 20:00 on Feb. 27, strikes against civilian infrastructure on both sides of the front killed at least 40 civilians and wounded 274 more.

Losses

By the end of 2024, the war had claimed more than 165,000 lives on the Russian side. Independent publications Mediazona and Meduza provide this estimate based on Russia's register of inheritance cases. This number reflects only losses of military personnel. In addition, Mediazona published for the first time a database of killed combatants, with 95,323 names on the list.

The Russian military filmed the execution of two wounded AFU fighters after interrogation, purportedly in Russia's Kursk Region. One of the victims was Oleksiy Zhukov, a 40-year-old resident of Dnipro.

The Telegram channel of the 60th Separate Mechanized Brigade published drone footage of a Russian serviceman tying a fellow soldier to a tree. Allegedly, according to radio intercepts, the footage captured a “sacrifice to Baba Yaga” — a method of summary execution in which a delinquent soldier is tied to a tree and left to wait for a Ukrainian drone strike. The Russia No Context channel cites a video of another Russian soldier similarly tied to a tree for refusing to participate in an assault.

Weapons and military vehicles

During the week, the following major military aid packages to Ukraine were announced:

• Europe is preparing additional military aid to Ukraine worth about €20 billion. The package will include artillery ammunition, precision missiles, UAVs, air defense systems, and more.
• Canada will transfer 25 LAV III infantry fighting vehicles, four F-16 simulators, ammunition, and frozen Russian assets worth $5 billion to Ukraine. Canada will also allocate $28 million (CAD 40 million) to support Ukraine's defense industry under the Danish model. In addition, Canadian authorities will provide another $10.5 million (CAD 15 million) for their own companies that plan to invest in Ukraine's defense sector.
• In 2025, Germany will transfer 370,000 artillery rounds to Ukraine (30,000 more than in 2024).
• Denmark will provide 2 billion Danish kroner (about $280 million), which will be used, among other things, to buy ammunition and train a Ukrainian brigade jointly with other Northern European and Baltic countries. Denmark has also pledged to allocate €2.2 billion annually in 2025-2028 to meet the AFU's priority needs and continue supporting 20 F-16s (12 of the 19 pledged aircraft have already been transferred to Ukraine).
• Norway plans to allocate 3.5 billion Norwegian kroner (about $314 million) for the purchase of military equipment for Ukraine under the Danish model. In addition, Norway is currently spending 600 million kroner (about $53.9 million) to purchase various types of drones and to develop drone technology for the AFU.
• Sweden announced the purchase of 1.2 billion kroner ($113 million) worth of air defense systems for Ukraine, including RBS 70 MANPADS and the latest TRIDON Mk2 air defense systems.

If U.S. military aid is cut off, Ukraine will have enough weapons and equipment to continue fighting at its current pace “through the summer,” analysts and Western officials told The Wall Street Journal. One of the experts explained that Ukraine currently produces 55% of the armaments it is using, with another 20% supplied by the U.S. and the remaining 25% by its European partners. However, some items of U.S. aid, such as air defense systems, long-range missiles, navigation systems, and MLRS rockets, cannot be replaced in the short term. One of the main questions is whether the U.S. will allow European countries to purchase American military products for use by the AFU.

Russian frontline craftsmen demonstrated the following products:

• A “Prokhanov bike,” named after a pro-war author, with a firing position for a gunner to take down enemy drones.
• An evacuation armored vehicle with armor made of wire mesh and rubber fabric screens.
• An armored recovery vehicle with combined armor made of chains and a conveyor belt.
• An AK-630/AK-630M naval rotary cannon in the body of a Kamaz truck.

“Donetsk convertibles,” light vehicles without doors or roofs, outfitted for firing at drones while allowing soldiers to hop out quickly in the event of a UAV attack.