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Weekly Ukraine war summary: Russia loses Mi-28 and Su-34 aircraft as its forces advance north of Vuhledar, Ukrainian drones reach Chechnya

The Insider

In this week’s summary:

  • Russian forces have achieved significant progress on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction and in the Vuhledar salient.
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are defending positions along the left bank of the Oskil River and are conducting counterattacks in Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv region.
  • In the Kursk region, Russian advances have stalled as Russian forces run up against their own previously abandoned fortifications.
  • Ukrainian air defense interception rates reached 90% for aerial targets in October 2024.
  • Ukrainian drones targeted additional Russian distilleries and, for the first time in the war, reached Chechnya.
  • Aviation-focused Russian pro-war Telegram channels reported Russia’s loss of a Mi-28 helicopter and a Su-34 fighter-bomber this past week.
  • Spy Dossier: Russian military personnel reportedly engaged in fratricide incidents in the Kursk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
  • - Ukraine plans to request military assistance from South Korea in response to the involvement of North Korean forces in combat on the Russian side.

Situation at the front

This week, Russian forces made notable advances from the southern flank of the Pokrovsk direction to the southern edge of the Vuhledar salient. They captured the town of Selydove (as confirmed by DeepState), progressing rapidly enough to avoid extensive destruction. Russian troops also pushed through to Vyshneve, east of Selydove, and attempted further advances toward Hryhorivka and Petrivka. Southward, Russian forces took control of the town of Hyrnyk, nearby Izmailivka, and the settlement of Kurakhivka. Several additional localities — Shakhtarske, Novoukrainka, Bohoyavlenka, and Katerynivka — were seized along the southern edge of the Vuhledar salient. The next objectives appear to be the town of Kurakhove and potentially a larger effort to cut off the Vuhledar salient.

Additionally, Russian forces are attempting to expand their control on the left bank of the Oskil River, marking territory with a flag-drop in Kruhliakivka. Ukrainian troops are actively obstructing these efforts, repelling attacks near the neighboring settlement of Kolesnikivka. Meanwhile, the AFU continues counterattacks in the heavily damaged Vovchansk area, reportedly capturing Russian soldiers.

In the Kursk region, the advance of Russian forces has once again stalled in the face of Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces have also come up against Russian-built fortifications that are now occupied by Ukrainian troops (this time in Daryino). Ukrainian paratroopers showcased a “road of death” from Korenevo to Lyubimovka, lined with destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles, while marines from Russia’s 810th Brigade, whom pro-Kremlin media credit with supposed successes in Kursk region, are reportedly refusing to join «meat-grinder assaults.» Meanwhile, reports indicate the arrival of North Korean military personnel in the Kursk region, although there is not yet any indication that they have entered combat. Additionally, new video evidence (1, 2) has surfaced showing Russian troops looting, with pro-Kremlin military bloggers leveling similar accusations against Ukrainians.

Mutual strikes and sabotage

The Ukrainian Air Force Command reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) that over the past week, 472 Russian UAVs were launched, including Shahed models and other unidentified types of drones. Of these, 258 were shot down, and an additional 182 were «locationally lost» without detonation (meaning they either crashed due to electronic warfare or were decoys without explosive payloads). Furthermore, 21 missiles of various types were launched, three of which were successfully intercepted. The largest missile strike targeted the bridge over the Dniester Estuary near Zatoka in the Odesa region, although the bridge remained operational.

In Kyiv this week, drones repeatedly struck residential buildings and other civilian infrastructure (1, 2, 3). One person was killed and another 21 injured as a result of these attacks in the Ukrainian capital. During a missile strike on Dnipro, three people were killed, 18 were injured, and the Mechnikov Hospital was damaged. In Kryvyi Rih, an Iskander-M ballistic missile strike killed one person and injured at least 14 more. In Kharkiv, a KAB strike on a high-rise building resulted in three fatalities and injured 36 people.

The Ukrainian Telegram channel Military Journal has published statistics on aerial targets neutralized by Ukrainian air defense in October. According to these calculations, the interception rate was 90%, with 1,795 out of 1,992 targets shot down. The breakdown includes:

  • Shaheds and other drones: 1,785 out of 1,914 (93%)
  • Kh-59 guided air-to-ground missiles: 0 out of 13 (0%)
  • Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air-to-ground missiles: 7 out of 20 (35%)
  • Iskander-K cruise missiles: 1 out of 1 (100%)
  • Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles: 0 out of 23 (0%)
  • Kinzhal missiles: 2 out of 3 (67%)
  • Kh-22 anti-ship missiles: 0 out of 2 (0%)
  • Kh-31P air-to-ground missiles: 0 out of 4 (0%)
  • Kh-35 anti-ship missiles: 0 out of 1 (0%)
  • S-300/S-400 SAMs: 0 out of 11 (0%)

Meanwhile, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) the interception of 223 Ukrainian fixed-wing UAVs over Russia, occupied Crimea, and the Black Sea. The following targets were hit by Ukrainian forces over the week:

Losses

Pro-war Telegram channels linked to the Russian Aerospace Forces reported (1, 2) the crash of a Mi-28 helicopter in the Kerch Strait, resulting in the death of its crew. Additionally, several posts speculated on the loss of a Su-34 fighter-bomber and the deaths of its crew (1, 2, 3). Other sources also mentioned the crash of a Su-25 attack aircraft near an airfield, with indications that the pilot sustained injuries.

Analyst Naalsio has updated the counts of visually confirmed military equipment losses in the Kursk sector. From Oct. 15-28, an additional 36 Ukrainian and 68 Russian pieces of equipment were recorded as lost. Amid the ongoing Russian counteroffensive in the region, Russian equipment losses have reportedly outpaced those of Ukraine. Overall, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost at least 287 pieces of equipment in this sector, while Russian forces have lost at least 249.

The Telegram channel Spy Dossier reported two incidents of “friendly fire” within the Russian army. According to the channel, on Oct. 25, near the settlement of Kremyanoye in the Kursk region, Private Aleksandr Ryabov fatally shot Captain Dmitry Slepnev, deputy commander of the 2nd Motorized Rifle Battalion of the 810th Marine Brigade, following a verbal altercation. On Oct. 26, near Novopokrovka in the Zaporizhzhia region, serviceman Maksim Fedorchenko of the 2nd «V» Assault Company, 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade, reportedly shot and killed ten sleeping comrades before fleeing; a search for him is ongoing.

Weapons and military vehicles

During the week, the following packages of military assistance from Ukraine's Western partners were announced:

  • Croatia will supply Ukraine with 30 M-84 tanks and 30 M-80 infantry fighting vehicles of Yugoslavian production through Germany, in exchange for Germany's order of 50 Leopard 2A8 tanks.
  • France will equip and train an additional brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, in addition to the brigade named after Anna of Kyiv, whose personnel are currently undergoing training in the country.
  • Canada has sent a medical variant of ASCV armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.
  • Northern European countries will procure equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Ukrainian defense industry using a «Danish model,» with Sweden and Norway already announcing investments.
  • Norway will also partially finance Romania's transfer of Patriot air defense systems, as well as the procurement of armaments and spare parts for F-16 fighters. Additionally, Norway will provide Ukraine with 130 inflatable boats.
  • Lithuania has delivered electric generators, artillery ammunition, mortar shells, and winter preparation equipment to Ukraine.
  • Previously supplied Sea King helicopters will be equipped with modern missiles, potentially including Brimstone and Marte ER anti-ship missiles.

Ukraine plans to make a large-scale request to South Korea for arms supplies due to the deployment of North Korean soldiers to the front. According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea has already supplied Russia with 8 million 152-mm and 122-mm artillery rounds. Ukrainian intelligence estimates that artillery munitions from North Korea account for 60% of what Russian forces are using on the front, with another 10% coming from Iran, and only 30% from Russian domestic production.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are also equipping their vehicles with foldable anti-drone «canopies,» recently seen on the American M2 ODS Bradley infantry fighting vehicle. Meanwhile, the Russian frontline defense industry has introduced a Mavic 3 quadcopter equipped with a cope cage, fitted a T-72B3 tank with rebar «dreads» on its turret, come up with a bizarre engineering construct based on the T-62M tank, and modified a «humpbacked» Zaporozhets known as «Zhorik.»

Previous weekly summary (October 19 – 25, 2024):

Weekly Ukraine war summary: “Gray zone” in Selydove, maneuver warfare in Kursk, Russia deploys Soviet BRDM-2 scout cars due to APC shortage

Click here to read all weekly war summaries.

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