News
In this week's summary:
- Russia’s counter-offensive in the Kursk Region has stalled in some areas — against Russian fortifications lost to Ukrainian forces.
- On several roads in the rear around Kursk, unknown persons have installed “dragon’s teeth” — pyramidal anti-tank obstacles — causing numerous fatal accidents.
- Russian troops are flanking Selydove; the Ukrainian garrison will soon have to leave the town.
- The Russian Armed Forces have occupied a significant part of Toretsk and have broken through the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal to reach the southern outskirts of Chasiv Yar.
- Units of the HUR (Ukraine’s military intelligence agency) conducted two successful frontline operations: in the north of Kharkiv Region and on the left bank of the Oskil River.
- The first confirmation of the transfer of North Korean military personnel to Russia for use in combat operations has emerged.
- The BBC Russian Service and independent publication Mediazona have noted a sharp rise in Russian military personnel obituaries.
- Australia has announced plans to send 49 decommissioned M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
Situation at the front:
The counter-offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region, which has continued since the beginning of the week (1, 2), has in some areas run up against Russian-built fortifications previously captured by the AFU. Nevertheless, the Russian Armed Forces nearly managed to eliminate the Ukrainian incursion into the border area of the Glushkovo District. Still, the AFU appears to be maintaining a presence in the area of Lyubimovka (where a Russian column of armored vehicles was defeated) and Olgovka in the northwest of the Kursk bridgehead. Overall, Russian pro-war bloggers agree that the initial successes of Russia’s offensive have not led to the collapse of AFU defenses (1, 2).
Russian troops have been taking advantage of muddy roads (1, 2), which reduce the AFU's superiority in drones and allow the Russians to make the most of their superiority in tracked vehicles, which have a higher cross-country ability. Russian troops, for their part, have faced an unexpected problem — “dragon's teeth,” pyramidal anti-tank obstacles, which someone had installed on roads in the rear, causing traffic casualties that exceed the death toll from Ukrainian FPV (first-person-view) drone strikes, especially at night. The obstacles have since been removed, but the roads remain dangerous due to remote mining. Meanwhile, further evidence has emerged that the Russian command is desperate to replenish the ranks of the Russian grouping in the Kursk sector while avoiding mobilization at all costs. A rifle regiment recruited from among soldiers of the Strategic Missile Forces has been deployed in the area
In the Pokrovsk sector, the Russian Armed Forces continue to envelop Selydove from the flanks, causing talk among observers about the threat of encirclement. If these fears prove to be well-founded, the Ukrainian defenders of the town may be forced to withdraw. Russian forces allegedly managed to cut one of the supply routes to Selydove, although the Ukrainian side has yet to confirm these reports. Meanwhile, to the south, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Kurakhove, having planted Russian flags in Ostrovske and Maksymilianivka. Among the factors hampering the Russian offensive are weather conditions, a shortage of personnel, and the enemy's superiority in UAVs.
Nevertheless, according to so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” head Denis Pushilin, Russian forces have occupied three-quarters of Toretsk. The Russian command is promoting “DPR” fighters who know the terrain and pro-Russian locals to command positions in this sector. And Ukrainian journalists write that the AFU soldiers have no hope of holding the town due to a shortage of personnel.
In the area of Chasiv Yar, Russian troops managed to cross the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal in two places at once: to the south-east of the town and in the Oktyabrsky neighborhood, where a Russian fighter from among Kadyrov’s troops, with the call sign Shustry («Speedy»), distinguished himself. The Ukrainian analytic channel DeepState admits that the situation around the city is getting more challenging.
HUR Special (Ukrainian military intelligence) Special Forces have carried out two successful frontline operations this week. The special units cleared the forest near the village of Lyptsi in the northern Kharkiv Region, reportedly destroying almost an entire enemy regiment, and also announced the liberation of Kruhliakivka near the Oskil River, thus reducing the threat of the AFU bridgehead on the left bank being cut in two. The grave situation in this sector is evidenced by the decision of the Kharkiv Region Military Administration to arrange the compulsory evacuation of four communities of the Kupiansk district, along with the town of Kupiansk itself.
Recent rumors and statements about the possible participation of North Korean military personnel on the Russian side in hostilities in Ukraine have received some confirmation. Footage has been released, allegedly showing North Korean soldiers at Russia’s 127th Motorized Rifle Division base in the village of Sergeevka in Primorsky Krai (the Russian Far East), while South Korean intelligence reported the transfer of the first 1,500 North Korean fighters by sea to Russian territory. In total, Pyongyang plans to provide 12,000 fighters (earlier, the head of the HUR Kyrylo Budanov spoke about 11,000 troops).
Mutual strikes and sabotage
The AFU Air Force Command has reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) a total of 440 Russian UAVs launched during the week, including Shahed-type drones. Of these, 237 were shot down and another 175 were radar lost — some as a result of electronic warfare equipment use. The launches of about 20 missiles of various types were also noted, with no interceptions reported. The night of Oct. 14, according to monitoring channels, was the first in 48 days to pass without the threat of Russian UAVs.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) the interception of 79 fixed-wing UAVs over Russian territory. Footage has also been released this week (1, 2) showing both sides using decoys — drones without warheads. Although they do not explode, they still end up in the statistics of shot-down and radar-lost UAVs.
Russia launched a missile strike on Mykolaiv, with the local military administration reporting one dead, 23 wounded, and damage to an infrastructure facility, a restaurant, shopping pavilions, residential buildings, and cars. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported hitting a nearby armored vehicle plant. Also, the Russian Armed Forces once again hit the port infrastructure of Odesa (two civilian ships and a warehouse with grain were damaged, one person was killed, eight wounded) and continued the “human safari” in Kherson and the Kherson Region: a car of the UN refugee agency was damaged; two elderly women were killed, and two more people were injured in another FPV drone strike on a civilian car.
The AFU hit a training range and an oil depot in Rovenky in the occupied Luhansk Region (the oil depot had come under attack in May) and a munitions depot in Russia’s Penza Region (the munitions reportedly did not detonate). Shelling of Russia’s Belgorod Region continued: eight people were wounded during one of the attacks on Shebekino, and two territorial defense fighters were injured in the village of Petrovka. The Belgorod Region has suffered the most civilian casualties in the border regions since the start of the full-scale war, according to Russian ombudsman Tatiana Moskalkova, who counted 398 dead and 1,157 wounded civilians.
Losses
The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona, together with a team of volunteers, have updated the Russian side's war casualty count based on open-source reports. A total of 74,014 deaths have been verified, with 2,010 names added to the list between Oct. 4 and Oct. 18, 2024. Researchers have noted a sharp increase in the number of publications about Russians killed in combat. In recent weeks, the totals are much higher than those seen for the same period in 2022 and 2023.
DeepState has reported on yet another summary execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war — Russian forces killed nine Ukrainian POWs on Oct. 10 in the Kursk Region near Zeleny Shlyakh. Those killed were allegedly UAV operators. In addition, the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine asserts that Russian soldiers shot dead a wounded AFU fighter near Bakhmut. The prosecutors report that the Ukrainian officer was killed while unarmed and lying on the ground.
OSINT analyst Naalsio has updated data on visually confirmed losses of military equipment in the Kursk Region. In the period from Oct. 7 to Oct. 15, 20 units of Ukrainian equipment and 26 units of Russian equipment were added to the list. As Russia’s counteroffensive continues to unfold, the weekly losses of the Russian Armed Forces have exceeded Ukrainian equipment losses for the first time. Over the course of the entire operation in the region, the AFU has lost 251 vehicles, while the Russian Armed Forces lost 181.
Weapons and military vehicles
Australia will transfer 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine and replace them with the more modern M1A2s in its own arsenal. Germany has delivered another eight Leopard 1A5 tanks, and the list of completed deliveries also includes 20 Marder armored personnel carriers, six PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers, reconnaissance drones, and artillery rounds.
The United States has allocated a new $425 million military aid package to Ukraine under PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority for Military Assistance). The package includes mostly ammunition for artillery, air defense, and HIMARS multiple-launch rocket systems, as well as anti-tank weapons. It has also been reported that the U.S. is behind schedule on increasing production of 155-mm artillery rounds: by the end of the year, American output is expected to reach 55,000 rounds per month instead of the previously planned 70,000-80,000.
In addition, there is a risk of further delays in the training of F-16 pilots, as Ukraine is using its more experienced pilots for ongoing combat missions while sending cadets to learn to operate the Western aircraft. At the same time, Greece has pledged to assist with the F-16 program, in particular the training of technical staff.
The U.S. also transferred a third battery of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, according to the list of military assistance provided. Thus, the AFU now has 10 anti-ballistic missile complexes in service, including eight Patriot and two SAMP/T systems.
Additionally, a few other countries have announced new military aid packages:
- Denmark — contents withheld
- France — the start of deliveries of French-designed kamikaze drones, which appear to be unreasonably expensive, has been announced
- The Netherlands — a joint contribution with Denmark to the purchase of ammunition under the “Czech initiative,” as well as the provision of self-propelled howitzers
- Canada — the package will include small arms, ammunition, and funds for the training of AFU servicemen.