News
In this week's summary:
- In Russia's Kursk Region, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU)have withdrawn from most of their previously occupied bridgehead, including from the town of Sudzha.
- Trump and Putin discussed the fate of the allegedly encircled Ukrainian troops of the Kursk grouping, even as military analysts fail to find evidence of such an encirclement.
- In the Pokrovsk sector, the AFU achieved new tactical successes along the arc below the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration.
- At Toretsk, Russian nuclear forces servicemen made an appearance as assault infantry.
- For the second week in a row, the territorial progress of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine remains at its lowest level since April 2024.
- Ukrainian and U.S. delegations agreed on a 30-day ceasefire, after which the U.S. resumed military aid to Ukraine.
- Russia suffered the largest drone raid of the entire war, with 400-500 UAVs launched on the night of Mar. 11.
- The U.S. stands ready to supply Ukraine with GLSDB ammunition after the AFU exhausts its stockpile of long-range ATACMS.
Situation at the front
In Russia's Kursk region, Ukrainian troops abandoned most of their previously occupied bridgehead. AFU Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi called the withdrawal a “maneuver toward advantageous defensive lines.” The Russian military managed to capture several dozen prisoners (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) and vehicles (1, 2, 3, 4), mostly damaged ones. In general, Russian pro-war channels admit (1, 2, 3) that Russia's attempt at encirclement failed. The Russian Armed Forces, in turn, reached the rear of the AFU through the pipe of an inactive gas pipeline, suffering losses both in the pipe (some of the troops suffocated) and from Ukrainian fire at its exit. In addition, the Russian Armed Forces made numerous but unsuccessful attempts during the week to attack the AFU across the border in Ukraine's Sumy Region near Basivka (1, 2, 3) in an effort to cut off enemy logistics.
Ukrainian soldiers believe (1, 2) that the main reason for their retreat from the Kursk Region was Russia's fire control of Ukrainian logistics, which Russia achieved by pulling its best UAV units to the sector.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the liberation of Sudzha on March 13, and Vladimir Putin arrived in military uniform at a command post in the Kursk Region to hear a report from Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, who said that the AFU grouping in the region was “isolated” and was undergoing “consistent destruction.” Apparently, Putin shared this information with Donald Trump's envoy Steve Whitkoff during his visit to Moscow, as Trump later publicly asked Putin to spare the lives of Ukrainian soldiers allegedly trapped in an encirclement, while Putin urged the Ukrainian commanders to order their troops to lay down their arms and surrender. The AFU General Staff responded with public assurances that there was no encirclement in the Kursk Region. The claims of Putin and Trump were also debunked by several Western analysts (1, 2, 3).
In the Pokrovsk sector, Ukrainian forces managed to advance in the Malynivka area east of Myrnohrad, as well as in the southern part of Udachne and Shevchenko to the west and southwest of Pokrovsk. Meanwhile, Russian forces are assaulting settlements previously liberated by the Ukrainians and are launching assault columns towards the Dnipropetrovsk Region (1, 2). Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets reports active resistance of the Ukrainian forces against the brunt of the Russian offensive southwest of Pokrovsk, where the Russian Armed Forces are trying to regain positions lost during successful counterattacks by the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Nevertheless, Mashovets refuses to second Russian pro-war channels in calling Ukraine's actions a “counter-offensive.”
In the Toretsk sector, Russian forces have “run out of steam” or taken a pause, and the Defense Forces of Ukraine have advanced in the Zabalka neighborhood in Toretsk. Additionally, a Russian tank column was destroyed in the sector. The depletion of Russian forces in this area is indirectly evidenced by the participation in the fighting of the 20th regiment, recruited from the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, which is responsible for guarding nuclear warheads and other nuclear facilities.
For the second week in a row, the pace of territorial advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine remains at its lowest level since April 2024, according to DeepState data analyzed by the independent publication Agentstvo. During the week of Mar. 3-9, Russian forces occupied 14.4 square kilometers of new territory, compared with 12.9 square kilometers a week earlier.
Following a meeting with U.S. representatives in Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainian delegation agreed to the conditions of a 30-day ceasefire, after which the U.S. resumed its deliveries of military aid and restarted intelligence sharing with Kyiv. The Russian pro-war community reacted to the idea of a ceasefire extremely negatively, fearing that it would allow the AFU to strengthen its defenses. Vladimir Putin hinted that he would support a ceasefire only with preconditions.
Mutual strikes and sabotage
The AFU Air Force reported (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) downing 549 UAVs of the Shahed type and other unidentified types out of 843 that Russia launched against Ukrainian territory during the week. Another 235 UAVs were “radar lost” under the influence of electronic warfare equipment. In addition, the Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting two of eight missiles of various types.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported downing or intercepting 748 fixed-wing Ukrainian UAVs over the territory of Russia and occupied Crimea. Of those, 337 were shot down on the night of Mar. 11, following the Ukraine-U.S. talks in Saudi Arabia. Russian pro-war channels estimated that 400-500 UAVs were involved in the attack, which is the largest number seen in the war. The attack was also marked by this year's first major raid on Moscow. In Moscow Region, three people were killed and another 20 injured. The AFU General Staff reported a strike on an oil refinery in Moscow's Kapotnya and on the dispatch station of the Druzhba oil pipeline while blaming any damage caused to civilian infrastructure on the actions of Russian air defense systems.
In addition, the occupation “governor” of the Kherson Region, Volodymyr Saldo, reported that three people had been killed and eight injured in a Mar. 10 HIMARS strike on a market in occupied Velyki Kopani. As the footage of the aftermath reveals, Russian military personnel were among the dead and wounded.
According to CIT volunteers (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), strikes against civilian infrastructure on both sides of the front between 20:00 on Mar. 6 and 20:00 on Mar. 13 killed at least 85 civilians and injured another 349.
Losses
Mediazona, together with the BBC Russian Service and with assistance from a team of volunteers, has updated its estimates of Russia's war losses based on open source reports. The list of killed combatants as of Mar. 14, 2025 includes 97,994 people. Volunteers are processing another 10,000 obituaries.
Ukrainian ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said that he had filed complaints to the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross over the alleged execution of a group of Ukrainian POWs near Kazachya Loknya in Russia's Kursk Region (geolocation). Footage of the killed AFU servicemen had been posted in a Russian pro-war channel.
According to WarSpotting estimates, Russia's losses of vehicles and weapons in February 2025 amounted to 295 units. The authors note that the January trend of relatively low losses (especially when compared to the spike observed last October and November) has continued.
Weapons and military vehicles
After negotiations in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. resumed military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine (1, 2, 3, 4). In the near future, Ukraine will receive GLSDB munitions, which have been modified to counter Russian electronic warfare equipment — especially important given the depletion of the AFU's ATACMS stocks.
Regarding the European Commission's plans to find an alternative to Starlink for Ukraine in the event of a service outage, it became clear that a full-fledged replacement would be difficult to find quickly (1, 2, 3). However, Elon Musk has promised to keep the network available to the Ukrainian military.
Ukraine's Ministry of Defense has announced plans to purchase 4.5 million Ukrainian-made FPV (first-person view) drones in 2025. A total of 110 billion hryvnias ($2.6 billion) has been allocated for drone purchases this year.
The Russian military-industrial complex continues to import forging and stamping machines and to purchase inertial navigation sensors, gyroscopes, and accelerometers needed to control drones in the event of satellite signal jamming. As for the use of drones at the front, the Russian Armed Forces are increasingly seeing Baba Yaga-type UAVs (known in the AFU as Vampire / Kazhan).
Russian frontline craftsmen demonstrated anti-tank mines for remote mining disguised as plastic bottles. On the Ukrainian side, a Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicle thoroughly reinforced with makeshift armor was spotted in the Pokrovsk sector.