OPINION
Results of the Czech Republic’s parliamentary elections will not be announced until Saturday, Oct. 4, but analysts are already arguing that, regardless of the outcome, the country is set to follow the Euroskeptic direction already adopted by Hungary and Slovakia. While domestic politics could shift in any number of ways, foreign policy is expected to tilt away from Brussels and in the direction of Moscow and Beijing — even if the pro-Western coalition somehow retains power.
Final pre-election polls in the Czech Republic have confirmed what has been evident throughout the campaign: former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s ANO (“Yes”) party appears to be headed for first place. Under the constitution, President Petr Pavel, a former NATO general, will be obliged to invite Babiš (or another ANO figure) to try to form a government. The Czech Republic is a parliamentary republic, meaning that while the president formally nominates the prime minister, head of state Pavel has far less influence over daily politics than the leader of parliament does.
Return of the billionaire premier
Babiš’s critics say he wants to run the country like his own company. His Agrofert holding is one of the largest in the country, and Forbes currently estimates his fortune at €3.3 billion, making him the Czech Republic’s seventh-wealthiest citizen. Opponents accuse him of corruption, conflicts of interest, and misusing EU grants.
Opponents of potential future Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš have accused him of corruption
Another point of contention is Babiš’s Euroskepticism. In the European Parliament, ANO sits with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, fueling claims that Babiš is pro-Russian (though he has never been known to run businesses in Russia). However, he has cultivated ties in the United States, leading some to sometimes call him the “Czech Trump.”
Nevertheless, Babiš does echo many pro-Russian and populist narratives. He has pledged to revisit laws concerning Ukrainian refugees (per capita, the Czech Republic has accepted more than any other EU member) and to halt military and financial aid to Kyiv — initiatives reminiscent of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has visited Moscow and Beijing in defiance of EU partners.
Babiš has pledged to halt military and financial aid to Kyiv — initiatives reminiscent of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
Babiš has also questioned the role of NATO. During his failed 2023 presidential campaign, the former prime minister (2017-2021) said the alliance worked poorly, arguing that Czech troops should not be sent to aid Poland in case of attack. At the same time, he claimed it was NATO’s responsibility to defend the Czech Republic.
Who could join Babiš?
Polls suggest that no single party will win enough seats to govern alone, and that goes for frontrunner ANO as well. Additionally, the current Spolu (“Together”) governing coalition — an amalgamation of the Civic Democrats (ODS), the STAN (“Mayors and Independents”) movement, and the Pirate Party — looks set to fall well short of the 101 seats it would need to maintain its majority. This means the next four years are likely to be a period of coalition building among new partners.
One possibility is a deal between ANO and ODS, the party of current prime minister Petr Fiala. Such an arrangement would likely require Babiš to give up the premiership in exchange for ODS removing Fiala, a compromise that, though difficult, could allow some continuity in foreign policy, including limited support for Ukraine.
According to surveys, however, the most probable outcome is a coalition between ANO and right-wing populists, left-wing communists, or both. The main far-right force is Tomio Okamura’s Freedom and Direct Democracy party, which opposes aid to Ukraine and advocates referendums on leaving both the EU and NATO. The party has been accused of harboring ties to the Kremlin.
Right-wing populist leader Tomio Okamura (center) and Communist candidate Kateřina Konečná (left) during a televised election debate
Similar accusations have been leveled against the Czech Communists, a party that in 2021 fell out of parliament for the first time. Since then, they have rebranded as the movement “Enough!” (Stačilo!) and are now almost certain to move back above the 5% threshold. On foreign policy, their positions are nearly indistinguishable from those of the nationalists: they oppose aid to Ukraine and support referendums on leaving NATO and the European Union. They also advocate resuming imports of Russian oil and gas.
If such parties enter the government, the Czech Republic will almost certainly embark on a Euroskeptic course similar to that of Slovakia under Robert Fico and Hungary under Viktor Orban. Even if Andrej Babiš does not go so far as to shake Vladimir Putin’s hand in Moscow, European solidarity would weaken further, and approving aid for Ukraine would become an even more complicated process. Along with Poland and the Baltic States, the Czech Republic is currently a member of the bloc of European countries pushing for the toughest line against Russia. The presence of the Communists in any ruling coalition would almost certainly signal a move in the opposite direction — toward what is effectively a pro-Russian camp.
Closer to the Kremlin
Even if the post-election coalition excludes the Communists or nationalists — or even both — the Czech Republic is unlikely to stay its current course. Babiš’s ANO party, once in government, is expected to shift foreign policy. Euroskepticism would drive the agenda, and with it, a tilt toward Russia and China.
Once Babiš’s ANO is in government, a reorientation toward Russia and China appears inevitable.
In short, a positive outcome to these elections is not one of the plausible developments on offer. The question is merely one of how bad things will be.
A turn to the East is as inevitable as ANO’s first-place finish. For those who do not want to see the next Czech prime minister become a frequent guest in the Kremlin over the next four years, the only hope is that Babiš’s business interests will push him closer to Donald Trump than to Vladimir Putin — and, of course, that the American president’s own stance is firmly set by the time the new government takes power in Prague.