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The UN Climate Change Conference, which lasted almost two weeks, concluded in Baku on Nov. 22. The event was marked by a strong Russian presence, with Moscow's delegation counting 900 members. At The Insider's request, journalist and social anthropologist Rasmus Canbäck looked into the delegation's composition and the topics discussed. He concluded that Russia, with active assistance from Azerbaijan, used the forum to discuss gas and oil cooperation with a view to circumventing or mitigating sanctions. Additionally, the atmosphere of COP29 served as further evidence of Baku's reorientation from the West towards Moscow.
In his opening speech at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that fossil fuels are a “gift of God.” He also criticized the West for “hypocrisy,” stressing that after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it was the West that approached Azerbaijan asking to buy gas, not the other way around.
Politico described the tone of the opening speech as “unique” — rarely had a climate summit host country taken such an insulting stance toward the forum’s participants. A few days after COP29 began, France chose not to have its climate minister, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, participate in COP29 as a protest against allegations of international law violations made by Ilham Aliyev against Emmanuel Macron.
While the Western press has reported extensively on the political turbulence surrounding the summit, there has been much less coverage in both Azerbaijani and Russian media. Russia’s delegation, comprising 900 participants, is the third largest at the summit — after the host country Azerbaijan and next year’s host, Brazil. Compared to the size of the delegation at the summit in 2023, the Russian delegation has almost doubled, raising questions about Moscow’s agenda at the event.
Last year, when COP28 participants in the UAE were choosing the location for the next summit, it was Russia that maneuvered the decision in Baku’s favor. Under the rotating schedule for COP conferences, it was Eastern Europe’s turn to select a host country, but Russia blocked all nations that had condemned its invasion of Ukraine. Bulgaria, Moldova, and Slovenia were among the candidates excluded for this reason. This left only archrivals Armenia and Azerbaijan, who blocked each other. In a last-minute deal, Armenia received 32 prisoners of war in exchange for lifting its veto on Azerbaijan hosting the summit.
The host being a close ally paved the way for an ideal climate summit for Russia. In addition to the 900 official delegates Russia sent, Azerbaijan invited 25 high-profile Russian politicians, businesspeople, and journalists. A review of participant lists suggests that Russia’s ambition at COP29 is likely focused on something other than a carbon-neutral future.
Gas deals and mutual praise
At the same time it was busy criticizing the West throughout COP29, host country Azerbaijan behaved very differently towards Russia. Daily news reports highlighted positive relations between the post-Soviet states. Coverage also included in-depth interviews with Russian representatives in Azerbaijan's state-owned media and articles praising Russia's involvement in Azerbaijani affairs. Simultaneously, Russia was awarded less flattering anti-climate awards by climate rights groups, like the title “Fossil of the Day” from the Climate Action Network.
COP29 also served as a platform for several high-level negotiations. Azerbaijani media reported a parliamentary meeting and phone call between Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin. Aliyev also met with Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and high-profile MP Leonid Slutsky.
The friendship between Russia and Azerbaijan was forged long before COP29. On Feb. 22, 2022, just two days before the Russian army invaded Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Russia signed an alliance agreement that featured clauses on intentions “to deepen cooperation in the fuel and energy sector” (despite Aliyev being given the long-table treatment from Putin as part of that visit). This collaboration has become a recurring theme throughout COP29.
Two months before the summit, Aliyev announced that COP29 would serve as a platform to mediate new agreements between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU regarding the Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom. One such agreement involves the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine: around 5% of the gas imported by the EU now passes through this route, and the current contract expires on Dec. 31, 2024.
Baku's mediation attempts seem to have failed as Ukraine repeatedly said it would stop the transit of Russian gas at the end of the year, and its position has not changed. However, Gazprom's presence at COP29 indicates that negotiations with the EU are still underway. According to The Telegraph, Azerbaijan is discussing a potential “swap deal” with the EU and Russia. This follows an August agreement between Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR and Gazprom for renewed cooperation.
The deal would allow Russian gas to be relabeled as Azerbaijani gas, enabling importers to continue purchasing Russian gas through Azerbaijan instead of Ukraine. The limited capacity of the Southern Gas Corridor would, however, reduce the volume of Russian gas exports.
There is already evidence of Russian gas being transported through Azerbaijani pipelines. According to Eurasianet, Azerbaijan has increased its imports of Russian gas to meet export quotas set in EU-Azerbaijan agreements. Moreover, SOCAR secured a debt swap earlier this year, replacing its U.S. loans with loans from Russia’s Lukoil, which already owns a 20% stake in Azerbaijan's largest gas field, Shah Deniz. SOCAR repaid a $1.5 billion syndicated loan from Citi and JP Morgan and borrowed the same amount from Lukoil.
Russian oil and gas lobby
The COP29 list of participants reveals that Russia’s official delegation included 26 Gazprom representatives, including several executives and the Vice President of Gazprombank. Lukoil's presence was limited to 12 members, including two vice presidents. Another 42 members of Russia's official delegation work in the fossil fuel sector.
Beyond the official delegation, the summit brought together many investors. Azerbaijan has invited a dozen individuals from Russian state-owned investment firms, including the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), which is overseen by the Russian prime minister. RDIF is under Western sanctions and has significant investments in the fossil fuel sector.
Although these COP29 participants were not included in the official Russian delegation, they were led by Boris Titov, Vladimir Putin's special envoy for relations with international organizations. When Titov spoke to Azerbaijani journalists, he praised President Aliyev's remarks that fossil fuels are a “gift.”
During COP29, Russia also negotiated with Kazakhstan and China to expand gas pipelines through Central Asia. Set to be developed in partnership with Gazprom, the project is seen as a way to diversify income streams lost from reduced exports to the EU.
Officially, the Russian delegation focused on measures to combat climate change and to strengthen cooperation with Azerbaijan, all while criticizing other countries that fail to protect the environment. But judging by the composition of the delegation, Russia has spent considerable resources to facilitate its oil lobbyists’ work behind the scenes at COP29.
The only official event organized by Russia at COP29 was called “Russia's Contribution to Strengthening Global Food Security.” The session was marked by the participation of Azerbaijan's Agriculture Minister Majnun Mammadov. At the forum itself, The Russian pavilion prominently displays a wheat field, portraying Russia as a reliable food supplier to developing nations. This narrative implicitly contrasts with the state of Ukrainian agriculture. Ukraine’s grain exports have been disrupted by Russia's invasion, causing a food security crisis in developing countries.
Another key Russian theme at COP29 was carbon trade. Moscow and Baku signed an agreement for Azerbaijan to establish a pilot facility for processing Russian carbon waste. In an interview with The Insider, Vitaly Servetnik, a spokesperson for the Russian climate NGO Environmental Crisis Group highlighted the significant gap between Russia's public rhetoric and its actual steps towards climate protection. Servetnik suggests that while carbon trading schemes are promoted as a solution to the climate change issue, in reality, they could undermine genuine climate efforts:
“Similar to other countries, Russia is trying to delay, or circumvent, any real climate action. Russia is only declaring its commitment to addressing the climate crisis but is, in fact, planning to emit more CO2 in the future—and, of course, profit from it.”
Servetnik says that a group of Russian activists have sued the Russian government for failing to meet climate goals. He also believes Russia's climate policies primarily serve to strengthen Putin’s hold on the Kremlin: “The current Russian regime is not interested in the sustainable and just future of people or the planet, but only in sustaining the future of its power and domination.”
In 2023, Azerbaijani economist Gubad Ibadoghlu, who is currently under arrest, published a report analyzing Azerbaijan’s gas production and consumption. The authors of the study concluded that the country is unable to fulfill its obligations to the EU solely with domestic production and will have to increase gas imports from Russia and Turkmenistan in order to supply the pledged volumes.
According to the European Commission's RePowerEU plan, EU member states must completely phase out Russian gas by 2027.
The meeting brought together Azerbaijani Parliament Speaker Sahiba Gafarova and First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council of Russia Andrei Yatskin.
CAN’s statement describes Russia as “a country using their pavilion for fossil fuel promotion rather than fossil fuel phase-out.”
The stated goals of the UN Climate Change Conferences include reducing carbon emissions and accelerating the global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. COP28 concluded with the signing of an agreement “that marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.”
In another speech at the summit, Aliyev accused “President Macron's regime” of brutally murdering protesters during the recent unrest in New Caledonia. Aliyev also called France's Pacific island territories colonies.
Riots, in which several people died, broke out in New Caledonia in May over the passing of a constitutional amendment that allows migrants from mainland France to vote in elections after 10 years of living in the archipelago. French authorities said Azerbaijan and Russia were involved in orchestrating the unrest.
Azerbaijan's attacks on France are explained by the fact that the latter supports Armenia.
Oil and natural gas generate 90% of Azerbaijan's export revenues and more than 50% of its state budget. According to an HRW report published in October, research into the environmental damage caused by the extraction of fossil fuels and discussions of possible divestment from these fuels are banned in Azerbaijan.
In April, human rights activist Anar Mammadli was arrested in Baku. This happened shortly after he co-founded the Climate of Justice initiative to fight for civil liberties and environmental justice in Azerbaijan in the run-up to COP29. As HRW notes, his arrest was a “clear warning” to all Azerbaijani eco-activists.