Operation Spiderweb: Satellites confirm 15 destroyed Russian aircraft, drone footage shows up to 23 — most are strategic bombers

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The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has claimed that 41 Russian strategic aviation aircraft were damaged or destroyed in Operation Spiderweb — an audacious behind-the-lines attack that on June 1 saw multiple military airfields across Russia targeted by drones launched remotely off the backs of unsuspecting cargo trucks.

However, satellite imagery and video footage reviewed by open source intelligence (OSINT) analysts has so far shown that the likely amount of affected aircraft is much lower.

Olenya airfield (Murmansk Region)

Aviation analysis platform AviVector released images showing confirmed damage. According to their assessment, the following aircraft were destroyed:

• 4 Tu-95 strategic bombers
• 1 An-12 transport aircraft

A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite image dated June 2 and shared by Ukrainian military-linked social media accounts shows the same overall picture: namely, the destruction of four Tu-95 bombers and one An-12 at Olenya air base in Russia’s Murmansk Region.

Belaya air base (Irkutsk Region)

Satellite images from Maxar, published by Financial Times correspondent Christopher Miller, show destroyed Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 bombers. Ukrainian OSINT analyst Dnipro Osint ⟨ Harbuz ⟩ reported that, based on the images, the following aircraft were likely destroyed:

• 4 Tu-95 bombers
• 4 Tu-22M3 bombers

A report by Radio Liberty, citing satellite imagery captured by Planet Labs, concluded that three Tu-95s and four Tu-22M3s were damaged. However, OSINT researchers from the Telegram channel Oko Hora noted that from June 2-4, one Tu-95 appeared to have been either replaced or else was quickly repaired and cleaned in order to appear undamaged. The aircraft had shown clear signs of damage and burn marks immediately after the attack. This led the Ukrainian military website Militarnyi to conclude that four Tu-95 strategic bombers — not three — were indeed destroyed at Russia’s Belaya air base.

Ivanovo Severny and Dyagilevo airfields

According to satellite imagery, no significant damage to aircraft was visible at either Ivanovo Severny in the Ivanovo Region or Dyagilevo in the Ryazan Region.

However, drone footage released by the SBU earlier today shows strikes on an A-50 early warning aircraft at Ivanovo Severny and on multiple Tu-22M3 bombers at Dyagilevo. It is possible that the drones either failed to detonate or their impact did not cause fires, and any damage inflicted may be undetectable due to the low resolution of the satellite images.

12 to 23 aircraft damaged or destroyed

Dnipro Osint ⟨ Harbuz ⟩ estimates that, based on satellite data, 15 aircraft were either destroyed or critically damaged. These include 13 strategic aviation aircraft, one An-12 transport plane, and one A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft.

Radio Svoboda estimated that at least 11 strategic bombers (seven confirmed Tu-95s, one likely damaged Tu-95, and four Tu-22M3s) and one An-12 cargo plane — not part of Russia's strategic aviation — were destroyed at the targeted airfields.

Militarnyi concluded that 13 aircraft were destroyed at the Olenya and Belaya bases alone, with no confirmed damage at other locations.

The Ukrainian OSINT project CyberBoroshno (lit. “CyberFlour”) counted 22 aircraft confirmed as damaged based on its analysis of video footage, and noted that damage to one additional Il-78M aerial refueling tanker could not be confirmed with certainty.