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Cover photo: Pavel Suetin; Source: Georgii Chentemirov / The Barents Observer
Norway has denied political asylum to Russian citizen Pavel Suetin, who fled Russia due to the threat of being mobilized into the armed forces and sent to the front lines in Ukraine, on the grounds that he faces no danger in his home country. As its justification, the Norwegian Directorate of Immigration (UDI) cited President Vladimir Putin's verbal claim that partial mobilization in Russia had ended, according to an article by The Barents Observer.
As reported by the outlet, Suetin arrived in Norway in Sept. 2022. On Sept. 21 — the day Putin announced the “partial” mobilization in Russia — several individuals in military and police uniforms came to Suetin's home in the town of Severomorsk. He chose not to open the door and the next day left for the Norwegian town of Vadsø, where his mother lives. A few days later, he went to the police and applied for political asylum. In mid-September of this year, Suetin’s asylum request was denied, and he was ordered to leave the Schengen zone within three weeks.
In the asylum decision document Suetin made available to The Barents Observer, the UDI pointed to Putin and then-Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu's announcement of the mobilization's end in Oct. 2022. The immigration authority admitted there was no official decree ending the mobilization, but claimed that draft notices aren't being sent out anymore, adding that the Russian army's ranks were instead being filled by volunteers lured in with big cash payouts.
The Norwegian officials also said that Russia does not prohibit men of conscription age from leaving the country, nor are there cases of people being arrested after returning home during the mobilization period. Suetin told The Barents Observer:
“[The] UDI claims that there is no mobilization because Putin said so. However, it's widely known that every word uttered by Vladimir Putin is a lie. He lied about the mobilization and he also lied about conscripts supposedly not taking part in active combat.”
According to Suetin, the person currently living in his apartment has said that the Russian Defense Ministry has continued to inquire about Suetin's whereabouts over the past two years.
A representative of the Norwegian human rights organization “SmåRådina: For Democracy in Russia” told The Insider that Suetin would be able to appeal the asylum denial to a higher authority:
“There haven't been similar cases in Norway until now, although in some situations, people who left Russia because of the war have been waiting up to two years for an answer. The general trend shows that the screws are tightening when it comes to refugees — not just for Russians, but others as well. Recently, a decision was made that Ukrainians who received temporary collective protection in Norway and then traveled back to Ukraine would lose their [protected] status. Norway is following the example of Sweden and Denmark, where right-wing populist parties are strong. Specifically, this decision can be appealed to UNE, the appeals body for migration-related cases. For example, since Suetin has already been issued a draft notice, even if no new ones are issued, he could be forced to participate in an illegal war and sent to the front, where his life would be at risk.”
This isn't the first time Western countries have made decisions about asylum seekers by accepting statements from Russian officials at face value.
In Dec. 2022, the Netherlands announced that it would be postponing the processing of asylum applications from Russians fleeing mobilization, citing Shoigu's announcement that mobilization had ended. Technically, however, the mobilization in Russia is still active, as there has not been an official order to cancel the “partial” mobilization declared in 2022 — a fact confirmed by a Russian Supreme Court ruling in May 2023.
Two years ago, Russia declared a “partial mobilization,” prompted by the dire situation on the front lines as Ukrainian forces advanced in both the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, taking advantage of the depleted Russian forces. The call-up sparked protests and a mass exodus of draft-eligible men, with some opting to flee the country by unconventional means, such as swimming — and running — across rivers, and taking to the sea in rubber dinghies.
Rumors of a new wave of mass conscription into the Russian army have persisted ever since — particularly intensifying after Ukraine began its incursion into Russia’s Kursk Region.
Signs that Russia faces a severe shortage of soldiers include the return of wounded troops to the front, Russian forces’ inability to dislodge the Ukrainian army from Kursk, and the extensive use of untrained conscripts. Experts interviewed by The Insider have estimated that Russia could mobilize an additional 300,000 soldiers, but it lacks the equipment and resources to support them. Moreover, creating another mobilization wave would carry significant political risks for the Kremlin, as those who could be persuaded to agree to fight have already been drafted, making any future efforts to significantly expand the military’s ranks much more challenging.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently assessed “that Russian efforts to reorganize Russia's decentralized, regional recruitment efforts into a broader federal effort indicate that Russia is struggling to meet the manpower demands of its war in Ukraine and that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains averse to involuntary mobilization for the moment.”
Starting from Nov. 1, 2024, Russia is set to roll out an electronic draft summons system, which will automatically prevent conscripts and those mobilized into the army from leaving the country once a draft notice enters the registry. The system is not yet ready for implementation nationwide. As per State Duma MP Andrey Kartapolov, the pilot program being rolled out this year will see electronic notices sent out to mobilized men in three Russian regions.